Project Selection + A Prevented School Attack + Uncertainty & More
Profiles in Preparedness #17
In emergency management, we often talk about the disaster preparedness cycle as a circle—but is it really?
A lot of doctrine depicts preparedness as a smooth, continuous loop: assess, plan, train, exercise, repeat. But in practice, each phase is often treated as a separate project with a clear endpoint.
As a result, the cycle often looks more like a square—rigid and full of hard 90-degree turns. When this happens lessons get lost. Gaps don’t get closed. And by the time we test plans in an exercise, it’s too late to fix foundational issues.
The “shape” of a preparedness cycle might not seem minor, but it can often create disaster response plans that don’t align with the actual demands of the crises they are meant to address.
I posted a new article this week about this dynamic and how public safety professionals can prevent it from impacting them, which you can read here.
For Academy Subscribers
I added a new chapter to the “Project Management in Emergency Management” Playbook this week.
When tackling a new project, choosing the right approach—Agile or Waterfall—can feel like a high-stakes decision. But the real takeaway? It’s not about picking one over the other—it’s about knowing when to use each.
This article breaks down the strengths and tradeoffs of both methods, helping you think beyond rigid frameworks and focus on what best supports your goals. If you’ve ever struggled with project planning or felt boxed in by a methodology, give it a read.
You can read the article here.
This Week‘s Reads
Here are three articles and a podcast that I read and listened to this week and why I thought they were worth sharing.
Article | The Four Pillars of Venture Investing.
Selecting the right preparedness projects is one of the most critical decisions an emergency management director makes each year.
This article offers a valuable perspective—how professional investors think about resource allocation and tradeoffs. The four core jobs of a venture investor—finding, picking, winning, and supporting—mirror the process of identifying preparedness gaps, selecting key projects, and ensuring successful execution. Emergency managers constantly allocate limited time, budget, and attention.
Understanding how portfolio managers make decisions can provide useful insights for prioritizing initiatives. Give it a read and see how this framework might apply to your own project selection process.
Article | Averted school shooting in rural Tennessee.
We often analyze the failures—when warning signs were missed, when interventions didn’t happen in time. But it’s just as important to highlight when prevention works.
On February 6, a father in Tennessee found a video his son had recorded discussing a planned school attack. He immediately called law enforcement, leading to the arrest of two boys and the disruption of a potentially devastating event. That call took courage, but it also speaks to something deeper—the power of strong, personal connections within a community. This parent had the Sheriff’s number in his phone. In an age where so much attention is on national and global issues, how many people can say the same?
This case is a reminder that proactive intervention matters, and that relationships at the local level can be the difference between tragedy and prevention.
Article | Ukraine restores state registers after suspected Russian cyberattack.
A recent cyberattack disrupted Ukraine’s electronic registration system for births, marriages, and deaths, forcing agencies to revert to manual record-keeping.
According to officials, the intent was clear—undermine state functionality. But the ability to maintain operations, even under attack, is a testament to effective business continuity planning. This reinforces a critical lesson: resilience isn’t about preventing every disruption, but about ensuring critical functions continue.
Whether in government or private industry, the ability to deliver on promises—to do what you said you would do—is key to maintaining trust. I’ve written about this on LinkedIn before, and it remains a competitive advantage in any sector.
Podcast | Why Uncertainty Matters.
There’s a natural urge to predict the future—especially with AI and big data offering new ways to make sense of today’s world. But the downside? Overconfidence in predictions can lead to a false sense of security and a failure to build resilience for when things don’t go as expected.
This episode explores the risks of over-reliance on forecasts and data-driven models. When decision-making becomes paralyzed in the absence of perfect data, creativity and adaptability suffer—two essential skills in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Uncertainty isn’t just something to manage; it’s something to embrace.
For When You’re Ready
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And if you’re thinking about how to strengthen your organization's preparedness, that’s what I do. Whether it’s assessments, planning, speaking, or exercises, I help teams build the skills and strategies to stay ahead of the next challenge.