The Role of Stories + Microsimulations + The Effects of AI & More
Profiles in Preparedness #19
“That could never happen here.”
This line is one of the biggest barriers to preparedness because people don’t prepare for what they don’t believe could happen to them. When a risk feels distant or improbable, it’s easy to dismiss.
But as Nassim Taleb reminds us in The Black Swan, the absence of evidence is not the same as evidence of absence. Just because something hasn’t happened here before doesn’t mean it won’t in the future.
This is a challenge that public safety professionals and emergency managers face every day. How do you get people to want to prepare for something that hasn't happened to them before?
One answer is storytelling. Stories bridge the gap between abstract threats and lived experience. By sharing real accounts of people, organizations, and communities that have faced disasters, we make the risks more tangible and harder to ignore.
But storytelling isn’t just about creating urgency. It’s also about instilling confidence. When people hear stories of organizations that successfully navigated extreme events, it reinforces the idea that success is possible.
The most effective readiness comes from the combination of these two forces: the motivation to prepare and the confidence that success is achievable. This shifts organizations from assuming they are ready because others have succeeded, to knowing they are ready because they’ve put in the work to prepare.
The right story at the right time can change everything. Make sure yours gets heard.
Behind The Scenes
Here are a couple of things I worked on this week and what’s been added to the site.
Interview | Gamechangers in Resilience: Left of Bang. Earlier this month, I had the chance to speak with Paula Fontana, Chief Marketing Officer at iluminr. One key theme we discussed: In so many after-action reports, a common theme emerges—those involved in the response needed more training. But the issue isn’t the lack of lectures or PowerPoint presentations; it’s the lack of practice. During our conversation, I got a behind-the-scenes look at their microsimulation platform, and it was impressive to see how it's reshaping the way organizations prepare for incidents. These kinds of innovations are changing how we build real-world readiness.
Article | Defining "Done" and Setting Project Goals. In the latest addition to our Project Management in Emergency Management Playbook (available for paying subscribers), I break down what it really means to define “done” in a project. Doing this well means being able to clearly articulate what needs to be done, why it matters, the key requirements for success, and what obstacles could prevent completion. When teams align on these factors from the start, it reduces confusion and keeps projects on track. Take a look.
This Week‘s Reads
A few standout reads from this week—insights, ideas, and perspectives that caught my attention.
Report | Second and Third Order Effects of A.I. This report from the Aspen Digital Institute explores potential futures shaped by A.I., using foresight methods to map out second- and third-order effects. One point that stood out to me was the concern that A.I. could erode expertise by automating tasks once essential for developing mastery. While I disagree with the premise that we’ll have “experts” without adequate training (if they aren’t trained, they aren’t experts), the underlying trade-off is real.
But what this really shifts is the emphasis from possessing knowledge to applying it. A.I. can generate an emergency operations plan in minutes, but execution and turning that plan into action still depends on human judgment.
For those earlier in their careers, this was my the takeaway: focus on how to apply knowledge, not just accumulate it. That’s a skill that won’t go out of style. While the report frames this as the “Last Masters” problem, I take a more optimistic view: the next generation of experts will be those who know how to leverage A.I. effectively, turning information into impact.
It’s a worthwhile read—not just for its insights on risks, but for understanding how to navigate and mitigate them
Book | Mastery by Robert Greene. Speaking of mastery, this is my semi-annual recommendation to read Mastery by Robert Greene. I revisited a few sections this week, and it continues to hold its place as one of the most impactful books I’ve ever read. If you haven’t picked it up yet, it’s worth the time—whether you’re refining your craft or just starting out on the path.
Article | What Dismantling FEMA Will Really Mean When the Next Disaster Strikes. I almost didn’t share this one—anything even remotely political tends to be a third rail I’d rather avoid. But I’m sharing it not to make a political statement, but because it highlights the uncertainty we all operate in. Whether you’re in local government, a private company, a non-profit, or just an individual preparing for the unexpected, recognizing these shifts in the environment is essential. Your strategies should be shaped by the realities of that environment, not assumptions about stability.
If uncertainty is something you’re thinking about, I also wrote about it here: Leading Through Volatility.
Article | Does Power Corrupt? This From the Green Notebook article piece applies lessons from Marcus Aurelius to challenge the idea that power corrupts. Instead, power reveals. In a world that feels increasingly fast-paced and chaotic, its a reminder to take a step back, reflect, and examine who we really are. More importantly, it’s a check to ensure we’re ourselves with people who can keep our weaknesses in check. This stood out to me this week, as so much of my focus has been on understanding and defining the changing environment for clients, this was a timely reminder to also observe and understand ourselves.
Article | Hiring Has Never Been This Complex. There’s no shortage of discussion online about how tough the job market is right now—candidates are facing longer, more intensive hiring processes, getting ghosted, and now competing with an influx of federal workers. But what stood out to me in this piece was the other side of the coin: recruiters are struggling too, chasing a constantly shifting target for the "perfect" candidate. While job seekers talk about endless interview rounds, recruiters talk about the challenge of constantly changing job desriptions and shifting selection criteria. The advice? Build trusted relationships. As the article puts it, “It’s no longer about who you know. It’s what you know about them and how you get access to them.”
For When You’re Ready
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And if you’re thinking about how to strengthen your organization's preparedness, that’s what I do. Whether it’s assessments, planning, speaking, or exercises, I help teams build the skills and strategies to stay ahead of the next challenge.