U.S. Situation Report | 03.26.2025

Your Weekly Email from The CP Journal’s Watch Office

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Here are the highlights of the week ahead. Scroll down for a deeper analysis and the sources of information for any specific section:

• Severe Weather Threat (High) – A significant severe storm outbreak is expected Sunday (Mar 30) across portions of the South-Central U.S., with the potential for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Public safety leaders in at-risk regions should ensure warning systems and rapid response teams are on alert and pre-position resources for possible search and rescue and debris clearance operations.

• Major Events & Protests (Moderate) – Multiple large gatherings are planned nationwide, including high-profile sports events and protests. Expect traffic disruptions and heightened security needs. Coordinate with law enforcement for crowd management and route diversions, and monitor for any security concerns or counter-protests. Notably, pro-Palestinian Land Day rallies on Mar 30 in cities like NYC and Los Angeles​ may draw large crowds, and Transgender Day of Visibility events on Mar 31 are scheduled in many jurisdictions. Ensure interagency communication and intelligence-sharing ahead of these events.

• Public Health Update (Moderate, Improving) – Seasonal influenza activity remains elevated but has declined for five consecutive weeks. Hospitals should continue managing high flu patient loads, but relief is expected as flu and COVID-19 trends decline. Maintain baseline infection control and vaccination efforts. No new public health emergencies have emerged, but persist in monitoring for any upticks (e.g., variant outbreaks or localized clusters).

• Cybersecurity Vigilance (Elevated) – No major new cyber incidents were reported this week, but federal agencies warn that the overall cyber threat environment remains heightened. A joint CISA/FBI advisory highlights ongoing ransomware campaigns (e.g., Medusa ransomware targeting critical infrastructure). All organizations – especially government and critical utility operators – should continue a “Shields Up” posture, patch systems promptly, backup data offline, and drill response plans.

• Infrastructure Resilience (Moderate) – Recent incidents underscore vulnerabilities in critical systems. A countywide 911 outage in Missouri on Mar 14 disrupted emergency communications, and severe weather earlier in March caused regional power losses (now restored). Ensure backup communications (e.g., alternate dispatch lines, satellite phones) are tested and publicized, and coordinate mutual aid agreements for rapid utility restoration in case of new outages. Continue to monitor and harden infrastructure as needed against severe weather, cyber threats, and aging system failures.

• Upcoming Events (April 4–26): Plan for mass gatherings and heightened security during the Women’s Final Four (Apr 4 & 6, Tampa), Men’s Final Four (Apr 5 & 7, San Antonio), National March for Palestine (Apr 5, D.C.), Passover (Apr 12–20), Easter (Apr 20), Boston Marathon (Apr 21), and the NFL Draft (Apr 24–26, Green Bay). Prepare for peak severe weather and wildfire season in the South, Plains, and Alaska.

Did we miss something? If there is a significant event or element we missed in this report, drop a comment below (with a link to the source) to help others stay informed.

Remember, this report is intended for situational awareness, and readers should validate any information before acting.

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In-Depth Analysis

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Weather | Risk Level Elevated (→)

• Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes: A potent storm system is forecast to develop late this week, bringing an increased severe weather risk Sun–Mon (Mar 30–31) from the lower Midwest into the Southern states. The NWS Storm Prediction Center anticipates severe potential for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds on Sunday across parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, and adjacent states. By Monday, storms will likely push east into the Southeast (Tennessee Valley to Carolinas) with a continued severe threat. Emergency managers should monitor daily SPC outlooks (15%+ risk areas) and be ready to activate warning sirens and shelters. The severe risk is comparable to last week’s activity and remains elevated – residents in risk zones should have multiple ways to receive warnings and review tornado safety plans.

• Heavy Rain & Flooding: The same storm system will tap Gulf moisture, bringing heavy downpours and localized flash flooding. Portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast could see 2–4 inches of rain in a short period. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center indicates an elevated probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance in these areas (especially late weekend). While no widespread river flooding is expected (the Spring Outlook calls for generally normal flood risk this season), urban flooding in poor drainage areas and rapid rises on small streams are possible.

• Winter Weather (Northern Tier): No major winter storm is projected this week for the Lower 48. However, the late-week Plains storm will bring some mountain snow and high winds in the Rockies and High Plains on Fri–Sat (Mar 28–29) as the system intensifies. Parts of Colorado, Wyoming, and the western Dakotas may see several inches of snow and blowing snow. Travel in higher elevations could be briefly hazardous. This comes on the heels of last week’s blizzard in the Upper Midwest that closed sections of I-70, I-80, and I-29.

• Fire Weather: Elevated wildfire conditions persist in the Southern Plains and Southeast U.S. due to dry fuels and occasional wind events. The latest wildfire outlook warns of “high impact spring fire season” potential in the southern Great Plains, with frequent high-wind episodes through April that could rapidly spread any ignitions. Recent rainfall has been sparse in parts of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas, leaving dry vegetation; several early-season wildfires occurred in those areas in March. Red Flag Warnings may be issued on windy, low-humidity days.

• Temperature Extremes: No prolonged extreme heat or cold waves are expected this week. Much of the South and East will experience above-average warmth with highs ~5–10°F above normal in some areas mid-week, while the West sees near-normal temperatures. Freeze conditions may linger at night in parts of the Upper Midwest and Northeast, but this is typical for early spring and not expected to reach record lows. Continue to monitor NWS forecasts for any late-season frost advisories that could impact agriculture.

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Events and Protests | Risk Level Moderate (→)

• Sporting Events (High Attendance): Several large-scale sports events will draw national attention and crowds this week. The NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament “Elite Eight” games take place Mar 29–30 in Indianapolis (Midwest Regional) and Atlanta (South Regional), with arenas near capacity (tens of thousands of attendees) and associated fan gatherings downtown. Expect increased traffic congestion and strain on public transit in those host cities. Local authorities are implementing traffic control and enhanced security per standard major event protocols. In addition, Major League Baseball Opening Day falls in this period (Mar 27-28); ballparks in multiple cities (e.g. New York, Chicago, Los Angeles) will host sellout crowds around the end of March. This will impact traffic and transit at game times and may require additional police presence for crowd and traffic management.

• Planned Protests and Marches: Activist groups have organized notable demonstrations during this period, though no violence is anticipated. On March 30 (“Land Day”), pro-Palestinian solidarity rallies are planned in major cities nationwide. For example, a Land Day rally is scheduled at 1 PM in New York City’s Union Square, and a parallel event in Los Angeles. Turnout could reach the high hundreds to low thousands at these locations. Similarly, March 31 is Transgender Day of Visibility, and LGBTQ+ advocacy organizations are holding events such as unity rallies and community gatherings in cities like Washington, D.C., San Francisco, and Houston. These events are expected to be peaceful but will entail road closures, march routes, and a visible police presence to ensure safety.

• Seasonal Tourism & Gatherings: Spring events are drawing crowds in certain regions. Washington, D.C. is near peak bloom for the Cherry Blossom Festival, with thousands of tourists expected on the National Mall and Tidal Basin through early April. The National Park Service and Metropolitan Police have implemented traffic control and pedestrian safety measures, but heavy congestion and limited parking around the festival sites should be anticipated. Additionally, religious observances are beginning – the Christian Holy Week starts at the end of this period (leading up to Easter on April 20) and Jewish Passover preparations (starting April 12) are underway. While main holiday events occur later in April, some large church services and community gatherings (e.g. Palm Sunday observances on Mar 24 and Mar 31) may already require traffic management and security at houses of worship.

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Health and Medical | Risk Level Moderate (↓)

• Influenza Season Update: The U.S. is experiencing a late-season high-severity influenza outbreak, though key indicators are finally improving. According to the CDC, flu activity “remains elevated nationally but has decreased for five consecutive weeks,” and the 2024–25 flu season has peaked. Outpatient visits for influenza-like illness and flu-related hospital admissions are trending downward. Nevertheless, flu hospitalization rates are still above the baseline for this time of year and this season is classified as high severity (the first since 2017–2018)​. Twenty pediatric flu deaths were reported in the latest week, bringing the season total to 134.

• COVID-19 and Other Respiratory Viruses: COVID-19 metrics remain at low levels nationwide. The CDC reports the national test positivity rate around 3.8% (week ending Mar 8), a slight decrease from 4.0% the week prior. Only ~0.7% of emergency department visits are for COVID-19 symptoms, indicating a relatively minor impact on acute care. Hospitalizations for COVID-19 have continued to fall or plateau in most regions, and ICU capacities are generally stable with COVID patients comprising a small fraction of beds. No new COVID-19 variants of high consequence have emerged recently; Omicron subvariants remain dominant. Other respiratory viruses: RSV activity is low in most areas as the typical winter wave has subsided, and overall respiratory illness levels have declined to low levels for the first time since autumn.

• Healthcare System Capacity: Hospital capacity is generally adequate nationally, with improvement over earlier winter. The combination of waning COVID cases and the downtrend in flu is reducing strain on emergency departments and ICUs. No widespread hospital staffing crises are reported this week. Intensive Care Unit occupancy for adults is averaging near seasonal norms (around 70-75% utilization in many regions, with higher numbers in some metro areas due to backlog of non-COVID patients). Pediatric hospitals are back to normal operations after managing surges of RSV and flu over the winter. While some local facilities still report heavy load (especially where flu hit later), the overall trend is improving (↓).

• Disease Outbreaks & Alerts: No new significant disease outbreaks have been reported domestically. There are currently zero confirmed measles outbreaks at the national level, though sporadic measles cases continue to be identified among travelers. CDC notes that routine childhood immunization rates dipped during the pandemic, so pockets of susceptibility remain – jurisdictions should remain vigilant and quickly contain any measles cases with contact tracing and post-exposure prophylaxis to prevent spread. The avian influenza A(H5N1) situation is being closely monitored: as of this week, no new human H5 bird flu cases have been reported in the U.S., and critically, no sustained human-to-human transmission of H5N1 has been seen domestically. (One isolated human case was detected in the U.S. last year from poultry exposure, with no onward spread.) Animal outbreaks of H5N1 continue in wild birds and some poultry farms; USDA and state agriculture departments are coordinating surveillance and containment to minimize the zoonotic risk.

• Environmental Health: There are no large-scale environmental health emergencies at this time. Air quality is generally good across the country for this week, aside from localized issues (e.g., short-term smoke from controlled burns or dust in parts of the Southwest). No extreme pollution events have been reported. Some seasonal allergy alerts are in effect as tree pollen counts rise in the South and East – allergists and clinics may see an uptick in patients with allergic rhinitis and asthma, but this is an expected seasonal pattern. In terms of water safety, there have been a few isolated boil-water advisories (for example, a small system in the Midwest had a temporary E. coli contamination last week, which is now resolved). One notable ongoing issue: in Bucks County, PA, a jet fuel pipeline leak in February contaminated several residential wells, raising local health concerns.

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Crime | Risk Level Moderate (→)

• Violent Crime Trends: Nationwide crime data indicate an overall decrease in violent crime compared to the past two years, bringing many offense rates back to pre-pandemic levels. The Council on Criminal Justice reports that the number of homicides in major U.S. cities fell by approximately 16% in 2024 versus 2023. This follows the post-2020 spike in homicides and signals a continued downward trajectory. Similarly, other violent crimes like assault and robbery have decreased in many areas. For example, robberies dropped ~10% and gun assaults are down in 2024, according to the same analysis. It’s worth noting these improvements when allocating law enforcement resources; however, not all metrics are positive. Certain crime categories remain elevated relative to 2019: aggravated assaults and carjackings, while improved from their peak, are still higher than pre-COVID norms. Property crime shows mixed trends – notably, retail theft (shoplifting) rose about 14% in 2024, surpassing even 2019 levels​ and indicating organized theft rings remain active. In contrast, motor vehicle thefts, which surged due to the TikTok “Kia Challenge” last year, have started to decline after manufacturers and police interventions; auto thefts were down 24% in late 2024 from the prior year.

• Notable Incidents and Multi-State Threats: No singular high-casualty crime incidents (such as mass shootings) occurred at a national scale this week; however, law enforcement is contending with a wave of “swatting” hoax calls that have swept multiple states. In states like Michigan and New York, dozens of schools have received false 911 reports of active shooters in recent weeks. These prank calls (often computer-generated) trigger massive police responses and lockdowns before being proven false. The FBI and state authorities are actively investigating to identify the perpetrators behind these coordinated hoaxes. While no real threat was present, these incidents cause serious disruption, anxiety, and drain responder resources. Another cross-state public safety issue is the ongoing opioid/fentanyl crisis. Encouragingly, provisional CDC data shows drug overdose deaths have declined nearly 24% in the past year (Oct 2023–Sept 2024 vs. the previous 12 months) – a major improvement attributed to public health interventions and law enforcement efforts. Nevertheless, overdose levels remain historically high (approx. 87,000 deaths in 12 months) and illicit fentanyl is still a national scourge. A recent DEA operation in Arizona, for instance, seized 700,000 fentanyl pills on March 13 hidden in roofing materials, part of a surge that officials say equates to tens of millions of lethal doses removed from circulation this year

• Domestic Extremism and Terrorism Concerns: The Department of Homeland Security’s latest National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) bulletin (still in effect from May 2023) warns that the U.S. remains in a heightened threat environment, driven primarily by lone offenders and small groups inspired by a mix of extremist ideologies. There is no specific imminent threat reported this week, but DHS notes that factors like the 2024 election cycle and contentious socio-political issues could motivate violent extremist plots. Of particular concern are soft targets such as public gatherings. The risk level for extremist violence is assessed as Moderate and unchanged from last week, with no new public intelligence of a coordinated plot.

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Cybersecurity | Risk Level Elevated (→)

• Current Cyber Incidents: No high-impact new cyber attacks against U.S. critical infrastructure were reported in the past week. Federal agencies have not issued any emergency cyber bulletins during this period, indicating a relatively steady state of cyber activity. The absence of headline-grabbing attacks this week should not be mistaken for a low threat level. In fact, authorities continue to emphasize that baseline cyber threat remains elevated, given ongoing global tensions and persistent cybercrime campaigns. Security experts assess the risk trend as steady (→) – there is no spike, but the constant probing of networks by malicious actors continues unabated.

• Ransomware Advisory – Medusa: On March 12, CISA, the FBI, and the MS-ISAC released a detailed cybersecurity advisory on the Medusa ransomware family. Medusa is a “ransomware-as-a-service” operation that has been active since at least 2021 and has impacted over 300 victims, including in government, education, and critical infrastructure sectors. The advisory outlines Medusa’s tactics: primarily, actors gain initial access via phishing emails with malicious links or attachments, or by exploiting unpatched software vulnerabilities on internet-exposed systems. Once inside, they encrypt data and demand payment, sometimes also stealing data for extortion (“double extortion”). CISA’s alert provides technical indicators of compromise and recommended mitigations. This campaign highlights the broader ransomware threat environment – even in the absence of a major incident this week, actors are actively attempting intrusions every day.

• Phishing and Fraud Alerts: It’s tax season, which typically brings a surge in phishing scams impersonating the IRS or tax preparation companies. The IRS and FTC have issued reminders recently for consumers to be wary of unsolicited emails or texts about “tax refunds” or “verification required” – these are often identity theft schemes. Similarly, within government networks, users should be on high alert for spear-phishing attempts. There have been reports of emails spoofing state government domains targeting municipal employees with malware-laden attachments, as well as phone-based social engineering where callers pose as IT support. No widespread phishing campaign has been deemed a national incident, but the prevalence of such attacks remains high.

• Vulnerabilities and Patches: On March 20, CISA added three new software vulnerabilities to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog, based on evidence that threat actors are actively exploiting these flaws. The vulnerabilities include one affecting a popular network management tool and another in a widely used web application framework. All federal civilian agencies are mandated to apply patches for cataloged vulnerabilities by specified deadlines, and the same is strongly recommended for state, local, and private sector partners. CISA also released multiple Industrial Control Systems (ICS) advisories this week – these address security issues in systems used in manufacturing and energy sectors (for example, SCADA systems controlling water and power). The steady drumbeat of newly disclosed vulnerabilities underscores the importance of a robust patch management program.

• Overall Threat Posture: The geopolitical situation continues to influence cyber threat levels. The conflict in Ukraine and associated hacktivist activity means U.S. networks (particularly government and finance) could still be targets of pro-Russia cyber groups. While no specific credible threats were identified this week, the NSA and CISA maintain a stance of heightened awareness.

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Critical Infrastructure | Risk Level Moderate (→)

• Utilities – Power Grid: The nation’s electrical grid is stable with no significant disruptions at present. Power generation and fuel supply are normal for this time of year, and reserve margins are healthy with mild spring weather reducing demand. As of this morning, fewer than ~10,000 customers are without power nationwide, an extremely low number. Small pockets of outages exist (e.g., a few thousand in California due to local wind damage to lines, and scattered outages in the Plains as utilities perform maintenance). All have crews working and restoration times are short. However, looking ahead in this reporting period, the expected severe storms on Mar 30–31 could cause localized power outages in the affected regions (e.g., downed lines from strong winds or tornadoes). Utilities in the South and Midwest are on alert: many are pre-staging repair crews and equipment just outside the forecast risk areas for rapid deployment if outages occur. Last week’s severe weather offers a reminder – on Mar 14–15, storms knocked out power to over 15,000 customers in Mississippi and Louisiana, though service has since been fully restored. Overall, the risk to the power grid remains Moderate and steady; no extreme weather like hurricanes or deep freezes are in play, but routine spring storms will test local distribution resilience. It’s also worth noting that geomagnetic storm activity from a recent solar flare (G2 level on Mar 25) was monitored by NOAA. No impacts were observed on the U.S. grid or satellites, but space weather experts continue to watch for solar flares that could induce geomagnetic currents.

• Communications Systems: 911 Emergency Communications saw notable issues in the past two weeks, highlighting infrastructure fragility. On March 14, St. Charles County, Missouri experienced a countywide 911 outage for several hours. During that outage, residents dialing 911 couldn’t get through; the county had to publicize alternate direct numbers for police/fire. Service was eventually restored and the cause is under investigation (preliminarily traced to a failure in a telecom carrier’s network routing). Similarly, parts of Los Angeles County, CA had a 911 system disruption on March 19 (the Sheriff’s Department stations could not receive 911 calls for a period). The FCC has new 911 outage notification rules taking effect April 15, 2025, requiring faster reporting of such outages to affected PSAPs. In terms of public communications, no major telecommunications outages (internet backbone or wireless networks) were reported this week. Networks are operating normally with routine maintenance outages only. FirstNet (the first responder network) did not report any downtime

• Transportation Infrastructure: The nation’s transportation systems are generally fully functional this week. Highways: All major interstate highways are open. The mid-March blizzard that forced closure of sections of I-70, I-80, and other routes in the Plains has passed, and those roads have been cleared and reopened. There are some local road closures due to flooding in rural parts of the Ohio Valley (minor flood stage on small rivers), but detours are in place and impacts are limited. In California, Caltrans closed a section of Pacific Coast Highway on Mar 11 in a burn-scar area ahead of a storm as a precaution against mudslides; that stretch has since been reopened after the storm produced less damage than feared. Looking to this upcoming week, DOTs in central states are preparing crews in case severe storms bring debris or power lines onto roadways. Rail: Freight rail is moving normally; there have been no major derailments causing widespread disruption. (One minor derailment on Mar 19 in Dunsmuir, CA involved seven cars carrying lumber – no hazardous materials and the line was cleared within a day.) Passenger rail (Amtrak) and mass transit systems report normal operations with standard seasonal ridership levels. Air Travel: All major airports are fully operational. Weather may cause some brief delays (thunderstorms could ground flights in the South on Sun/Mon), but there is no FAA ground stop or staffing issue at this time. TSA throughput is up slightly with spring break travel – travelers should expect crowds but no worse than a typical holiday. Maritime: Ports and waterways are clear. The Coast Guard has no active waterway restrictions, aside from typical seasonal high-water advisories on the Mississippi. In summary, transportation infrastructure faces low to moderate risk this week – routine weather challenges are the main concern, and agencies are positioned to handle those.

• Fuel and Pipelines: The fuel supply chain is stable with adequate inventories of gasoline, diesel, and propane for the spring transition. Refinery utilization is around 88% as some refineries undergo maintenance, but fuel production and distribution continue without major hiccups. The Colonial Pipeline, a crucial artery for East Coast fuel, is operating normally after a brief precautionary shutdown in January for a small leak in Georgia. That issue was resolved within a day and did not significantly impact fuel deliveries. On a regional note, in the Northeastern U.S., a Sunoco/Energy Transfer jet fuel pipeline in Bucks County, PA remains shut down due to a February leak that contaminated local groundwater. This pipeline primarily served a local military base and airport; alternate supply routes have been arranged, so there is no broader fuel shortage from that incident. Repairs and safety tests are ongoing, and county officials are insisting the line stays closed until an independent assessment deems it safe. Natural Gas infrastructure is nominal – storage levels are high thanks to a mild winter, and pipeline flows are normal. One item for awareness: FERC and DHS are conducting a security assessment on critical compressor stations after reports of unknown drone sightings near some facilities (this is precautionary; no incidents of damage).

• Water and Dams: The national water infrastructure is in a good state with the spring thaw underway. Reservoirs and dams in California and the Southwest have significantly recovered from drought due to winter rains; many are releasing water to maintain flood control space. No dams are at risk currently, though California is watching snowmelt rates in the Sierra Nevada as warm spells could accelerate runoff. The Mississippi and Missouri Rivers are at normal to low levels for late March – the Spring Flood Outlook from NOAA indicates no expectation of widespread major flooding this spring across the U.S., barring an extreme rain event. Only isolated moderate flooding is possible, mainly in parts of North Dakota/Minnesota later in April due to snowmelt. Drinking water systems report normal operations; a few boil-water advisories were issued for small systems (common after repair work or localized contamination) but nothing on a large scale. Also, as severe weather increases, be mindful that power outages can affect water treatment plants.

• Emergency Services & Supply Chain: Emergency services (EMS, fire, law enforcement) are operating without significant degradation. Mutual aid networks and interstate compacts (EMAC) are on standby, but no requests have been made this week. In the supply chain domain, there are no major shortages or disruptions. Supply lines for food, medicine, and essential goods are functioning normally. The only notable supply chain constraint continues to be for some semiconductor components and vehicles, but that’s an industry issue slowly improving and not causing immediate emergency impacts. Fuel prices have been stable, and there is no indication of panic buying or shortages. One logistics note: seasonal severe weather can cause brief trucking delays if interstates close (like during last week’s blizzard), but freight companies are adept at rerouting. The railroads and ports are fluid; West Coast ports have labor stability after last year’s negotiations, and East Coast ports are not congested.

• Overall, critical infrastructure systems are performing well, with moderate risks primarily from routine hazards like storms or minor technical failures. Continuous monitoring and maintenance are key to preventing small issues from escalating.

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