U.S. Situation Report | 04.02.205

Your Weekly Email from The CP Journal’s Watch Office

BLUF

Here are the highlights of the week ahead. Scroll down for a deeper analysis and the sources of information for any specific section:

• Weather: A major storm system will bring severe thunderstorms and tornadoes to the South/Central U.S. mid-week and a blizzard to the Northern Plains, with critical wildfire risk in the Southwest. Impacts include possible tornado damage, power outages, road closures, and new wildfires.

• Events & Protests: Nationwide protests on April 5 (“Hands Off!” rallies) will occur in many cities – expect large but peaceful crowds and some traffic disruptions. Security is also likely to be ramped up for the Final Four in San Antonio (Apr 5 & 7) and local events.

• Public Health: COVID-19 and flu levels are low and declining, posing minimal strain. Keep an eye on the ongoing avian flu outbreak in poultry, though the risk to the public remains low.

• Crime: The country saw multiple mass shooting incidents across the country last week. Also, watch for swatting hoaxes.

• Cybersecurity: Ransomware threats (Medusa, Ghost) are active and targeting critical sectors. The FBI also warns of a new extortion scam impersonating ransomware gangs with fake data breach letters​.

• Critical Infrastructure: Recent storms have caused power outages for hundreds of thousands. Utilities and DOTs are in restoration mode. No major supply chain issues.

• Upcoming Events: April 19^th marks the 30^th anniversary of the Oklahoma City bombing.

Did we miss something? If there is a significant event or element we missed in this report, drop a comment below (with a link to the source) to help others stay informed.

Remember, this report is intended for situational awareness, and readers should validate any information before acting.

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In-Depth Analysis

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Weather | Risk Level: High (→)

• Severe Storms & Tornadoes: A multi-day severe weather outbreak is expected across the Central and Southern U.S. mid-week. Forecasters warn of supercell thunderstorms with strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds from eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday (Apr 2). Additional severe storms are likely Friday–Saturday (Apr 4–5) from East Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, including potential nighttime tornadoes. Early next week, the threat may shift toward the Eastern U.S., though forecast confidence drops beyond April 5.

• Winter Storms (Northern States): On the cold side of the storm system, blizzard conditions are expected in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Heavy snow (over 1–2 feet in spots) combined with wind gusts 40+ mph will produce near-zero visibility from blowing snow in parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Montana Tuesday into Wednesday. This late-season winter storm could shut down interstates (e.g., portions of I-94 and I-90) and strand travelers. Power outages are likely in areas with heavy, wet snow and ice accretion. As of Apr 1, nearly 400,000 customers lost power across Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Illinois from earlier severe storms and icing, and utilities are racing to restore service before the next weather system hits.

• Flooding: Soil moisture is high from East Texas through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and minor river flooding is ongoing in parts of East Texas, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Lower Ohio Valley due to recent heavy rain. Localized flash flooding is possible in areas of repeated thunderstorms. Major river flooding is not anticipated this spring on the Mississippi mainstem (below-normal snowmelt runoff), but moderate flood risk exists on smaller tributaries in KS/MO and isolated spots in the Mid-South. Continue to monitor flood watches, especially in flood-prone communities.

• Wildfire Danger: Portions of the Southwest and Southern High Plains face critical fire weather conditions. Red Flag Warnings are in effect across eastern New Mexico, West Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Colorado, indicating extreme wildfire danger amid strong winds and low humidity. The third-driest winter on record in the U.S. has left vegetation tinder-dry in many areas. These conditions have already materialized – in mid-March, fast-moving wildfires in Oklahoma destroyed hundreds of homes. Firefighters in Arizona and New Mexico are bracing for an active fire season after a virtually snowless winter. Residents in high-risk zones should avoid outdoor burning and heed local burn bans.

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Events and Protests | Risk Level: Moderate (↑)

• Nationwide “Hands Off!” Protests (Apr 5): A coalition of advocacy groups has organized a national day of action on Saturday, April 5 to protest perceived threats to democracy and social services by political figures​. Rallies are planned in numerous cities nationwide (e.g. New York City’s Bryant Park at 1:00 PM ET​, with parallel events in other major urban centers). These demonstrations are expected to be nonviolent and organizers are emphasizing de-escalation, but large crowds may gather. Counter-protests by opposing groups are possible, which could elevate tension.

• Major Sporting Events: The NCAA Men’s Final Four and Championship will take place in San Antonio, TX on April 5 and April 7. Large crowds (70,000+ attendees) are anticipated at the Alamodome. Heightened security is in place (bag checks, magnetometers) given the national profile​. There are no known credible threats, but as with any marquee event, the risk of lone-wolf disruptions or unruly fan behavior exists.

• Local Protests/Strikes: Aside from the April 5 national rallies, monitor smaller-scale demonstrations that may occur: for example, environmental activists plan climate marches on April 4 in some cities (tie-ins with Earth Month), and labor groups in several states are staging protests against proposed legislation (e.g. “Hands Off Our Schools” teacher rallies).

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Health and Medical | Risk Level: Low (↓)

• Terror Threat: The FBI, on March 26, advised that, after extensive investigation and intelligence review, they have not identified any specific credible threat targeted against hospitals in any U.S. city. This was in response to the potential terror threat bulletin released by the American Hospital Association and Health Sector Information Sharing and Analysis Center on March 20, 2025.

• COVID-19: National COVID-19 metrics continue on a downward trend. The CDC reports that as of late March, infections are declining in 31 states and rising in only 1 state​. Test positivity is around 3–4%, and COVID-like emergency visits remain near yearly lows​. Weekly hospital admissions have also decreased, and no major hotspots are noted. The CDC has rated all U.S. counties as low COVID Community Level at this time.

• Seasonal Illness & Outbreaks: The influenza season is winding down. As of March 25, flu infections were declining or stable in 45+ states. Flu-related hospitalizations have fallen, and some hospitals are ending visitor restrictions put in place during the winter surge. Other respiratory viruses (RSV, etc.) are at low levels nationally. No significant uptick in avian influenza transmission to humans has been seen, though the CDC is monitoring the H5N1 bird flu outbreak in animals. Since spring 2024, 70 human H5N1 cases have been reported in the U.S. (mostly farm workers in contact with infected poultry or dairy cows). Human-to-human transmission of H5N1 has NOT been observed, and the CDC assesses the risk to the general public as low at this time.

• Public Health Alerts: No new large-scale disease outbreaks have been reported this week. The CDC and state health agencies are keeping an eye on measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases as travel increases – one measles case in an international traveler was confirmed in Houston (contacts being traced).

• Healthcare System Capacity: Hospitals nationwide report manageable occupancy levels. COVID-19 inpatient numbers are at their lowest in 18 months, and flu admissions are dropping, easing the strain on emergency departments.

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Crime | Risk Level: Elevated (→)

• Mass Shootings and Targeted Violence: Gun violence remains a serious public safety concern, with several mass shooting incidents in the past week. For example, in Jackson, Mississippi, eight people were injured when gunfire erupted at a downtown post-St. Patrick’s Day parade celebration. In Pierce County, Washington, a shooting at a house party killed 2 teenagers and wounded 4 others. Urban areas, including Houston and San Antonio, TX, also saw bar-related shootings with 5+ victims. A tragic domestic violence shooting in South Florida on Mar 26 left a woman and three children dead. Many jurisdictions are observing National Crime Victims’ Rights Week in April with outreach events – use this opportunity to disseminate information on restraining orders, counseling, and firearm surrender programs for at-risk individuals.

• Emerging Threats: The FBI warns of an uptick in “swatting” incidents and is investigating the source of these swatting campaigns.

• Terror Threat: The FBI March 26 advised that, after extensive investigation and intelligence review, they have not identified any specific credible threat targeted against hospitals in any U.S. city. This was in response to the potential terror threat bulletin released by the American Hospital Association and Health Sector Information Sharing and Analysis Center on March 20, 2025.

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Cybersecurity | Risk Level: Elevated (→)

• Ransomware – Medusa: The Medusa ransomware campaign continues to pose a significant threat to U.S. organizations. A joint FBI/CISA cybersecurity advisory issued March 12 warns that Medusa ransomware (a ransomware-as-a-service variant) has hit over 300 victims in critical infrastructure sectors as of late 2024. The attackers typically gain entry via phishing emails or by exploiting unpatched software vulnerabilities. They then encrypt data and threaten to publish it.

• Ransomware – Ghost/Cring: Another advanced threat is the “Ghost” (aka Cring) ransomware group, which operates out of China and targets organizations in over 70 countries, including the U.S. In February, CISA and the FBI highlighted Ghost’s tactics: they aggressively exploit old, unpatched vulnerabilities in internet-facing servers (VPN appliances, outdated software, Exchange servers) to gain access. Affected victims range from manufacturers and tech companies to local government networks. Ghost actors rotate their malware and ransom notes to evade detection. The lesson: Many breaches succeed because basic patches were not applied.

• Phishing & Scams: Authorities report a surge in SMS phishing (“smishing”) attacks nationwide. One prevalent scam involves text messages claiming the recipient has unpaid road tolls, urging them to click a malicious link. The FBI’s IC3 center received over 60,000 complaints in 2024 about these unpaid-toll text scams, and they continue to circulate widely. The messages typically use official-sounding language and dollar amounts (e.g., “Outstanding toll $12.50 – pay now to avoid $50 late fee”).

• Data Extortion Scam: The FBI issued an alert about criminals sending hoax extortion letters to executives. Scammers masquerade as the ransomware gang “BianLian”, claiming they’ve hacked the company and will release sensitive data unless a ransom is paid. In reality, no breach has occurred; it’s a bluff to scare victims into paying. These letters (sometimes mailed physically to executives’ homes or offices) cite actual data breach headlines to sound credible.

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Risks to Critical Infrastructure | Risk Level: Moderate (→)

• Power Outages: Severe weather has caused widespread power outages in the past few days (400,000 across 4 states). Over the weekend, storms (including high winds and ice) knocked out electricity to more than 260,000 customers in Michigan, with ~100,000 still in the dark as of April 1​. Outages also affected parts of Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee due to wind damage and tornadoes. Given that another storm system is imminent, some areas could experience prolonged outages.

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Upcoming Events to Monitor | Next 2–4 weeks

• 30th anniversary of the Oklahoma City bombing: April 19^th will be marked by memorial events in Oklahoma City with high-level attendees (heightened security expected).

• Easter Weekend Travel (April 19–21): The weekend of April 19–20 includes Easter Sunday, which will likely see increased travel as families gather. Expect heavier traffic on highways starting Friday 4/18 and busy airports. No specific threats, but the weather could be volatile (historically, April can bring severe storms or late snow around that weekend).

• Boston Marathon (April 21): The 128th Boston Marathon (Patriots’ Day) will take place Monday, April 21.

• Earth Day (April 22): Earth Day events are planned nationwide. Over 500 cities and towns will hold Earth Action Day gatherings focused on climate action. Some activist groups may use Earth Day to stage protests against specific companies (e.g., fossil fuel firms).

• Late-April into May Outlook: As we move deeper into spring, severe weather season will peak for the Plains and Southeast. Anticipate more frequent tornado and storm watches. In the West, wildfire season begins early in drought-affected areas; states like Arizona and New Mexico may see significant fires.

• April 20 is also observed as an unofficial event (“4/20”) that could draw crowds at parks in some cities – mostly low-risk, but be mindful of impaired-driving enforcement that evening.

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